Month: February 2023

Just how low became painfully evident when a day before his departure, an apparent Chinese spy balloon over the state of Montana roiled the tensions he was trying to address.

Eventually, the Chinese foreign ministry claimed the unmanned airship was used for weather research and had blown off course.

The accompanying expression of regret suggested Beijing did not want the incident to mar the secretary of state’s visit – the first of its kind in five years.

But the damage was done.

Given how wide the rift has become, the fact that the trip was happening in the first place had been cause for celebration.

But now what remains is a sense of huge missed opportunity.

All along, US officials had made clear that this was not about breakthroughs. It was about talking.

Mr Blinken wants to “avoid competition veering into conflict”.

“One of the ways you do that is making sure that you actually have good lines of communication,” he said in a speech last month, calling for “putting some guardrails into the relationship.”

That means restoring regular contacts and establishing working norms.

“I think the goal [was] to basically fast-forward this Cold War to its détente phase, thereby skipping a Cuban Missile Crisis,” says Jude Blanchette, a China expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.

It hasn’t been an easy ride for the world’s two biggest economies.

A Trump-era trade war, tensions over Taiwan and an increasingly assertive China under Xi Jinping derailed the relationship in recent years. And it plummeted further as China refused to condemn Russia over its invasion of Ukraine.

Then came a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the G20 summit in November.

The two leaders expressed the desire to avoid conflict and reduced the heat of their rhetoric.

And Mr Blinken wanted to build on that.

Even before the balloon went up, the shift was one of tone, more than substance.

The Americans have continued to press ahead with the economic restrictions and military expansion in the region, angering Beijing.

In the past week, Japan and the Netherlands were reported to have reached an agreement with Washington to restrict exports of advanced chip manufacturing equipment to China.

This would be only the latest step by the US to limit Beijing’s access to sensitive semiconductor technology, cutting it out of microchip supply chains.

“This shows the US has taken a much harder line on tech transfer, trying to get key allies on board,” says Chris Miller, a professor of international history who wrote a book about US-China tensions over chip technology.

And in the past few days, the US military announced it was expanding its presence in the Philippines – one of several moves to strengthen regional alliances as it positions itself to counter China amid growing concern over a possible conflict with Taiwan.

But the Biden administration still wanted to talk.

Mr Blanchett said the White House thought this was a good time to do so, because it had won some breathing room with a Congress hawkish on China by establishing a track record of being tough on Beijing, moving beyond steps taken by former President Donald Trump.

Instead, the balloon gave Republicans an opening to lead the charge in demanding action against China’s “brazen disregard for US sovereignty”.

State department officials emphasised they had not given up, that the diplomatic contacts continued to set up another meeting.

But they gave no date, adding to the sense of a consequential relationship in limbo.

In a BBC interview, Tor Wennesland called for “firm” diplomatic intervention to stem the bloodshed.

He also warned of further deterioration due to declining international support for the Palestinian Authority (PA).

“The UN cannot take over this responsibility, we cannot govern Palestine,” he said.

In the last month, more than 35 Palestinians and seven Israelis have been killed, following a year of spiralling violence involving near-nightly Israeli military search and arrest raids and a spate of Palestinian attacks.

It comes with the most radically nationalist government in Israel’s history now in power, which has declared the principle of “exclusive” Jewish rights to all the land.

Meanwhile, a crisis-gripped PA, which governs to a limited extent parts of the West Bank, has been losing control of the cities of Jenin and Nablus to a new generation of armed militants.

Many observers fear a final demise of prospects for a so-called two-state solution – the long standing international formula for peace.

Mr Wennesland is the UN’s special co-ordinator for the Middle East peace process, a post created during the breakthrough Oslo agreements of the 1990s. It now sees him frequently shuttling between Israeli, Palestinian and regional officials, trying to de-escalate crises and violent flare-ups, while hopes of a longer-term peace are moribund.

Mr Wennesland accepted there were “difficult” diplomatic conditions, given the “political situation… on the Israeli side” and the “complicated situation” with the Palestinian leadership.

But the envoy dismissed the suggestion that the peace process was dead.

“Whatever government we have in Israel, whatever authority we have in Ramallah, this is the point of departure where this discussion needs to take place,” he said.

“We are very well aware of the agreements made in the formation of the Israeli government. I mean, diplomacy cannot stop there.”

“The engagement we have seen over the last days and weeks is very good. It’s high time and maybe it’s even a little bit late. We should have started before.”

International efforts towards a long-term solution have been stalled for nearly a decade. The Trump administration put forward a plan, now abandoned, which would have seen Palestinians given municipal control of pockets of the West Bank along with the Gaza Strip, with Israel given full security control.

The fallout from the plan’s announcement sparked violence on the ground and saw the Palestinians cut off nearly all ties with the US.

Meanwhile, human rights groups increasingly call on the international community to acknowledge a “one-state” reality for Palestinians living under Israel’s military occupation, now into its 56th year.

The UN envoy said there was now “active diplomacy” involving the Americans, the UN and Israeli and Palestinian officials.

Asked whether this would lead to fewer Israeli military raids or a restoration of PA control in parts of the West Bank, he said: “The American side is in very specific discussions with [the Israelis].

“There are plans that can be rolled out. So these paradigms may change. And I said there needs to be a space for the Palestinian security forces to operate.

“The key factor here is that the parties are not nursing their unilateral decisions… if we are going to keep the situation under control,” he said.

He called on Israel to “firmly deal” with the issue of expansion of Israeli settlements and settler violence in the West Bank. He also said that Palestinian security forces needed to be able to regain control in the cities of Jenin and Nablus.

He urged a full resumption of so-called security co-ordination between Israel and the PA, which President Mahmoud Abbas last week announced he was cancelling.

“There are contacts, but we just had a discussion with the Palestinians on this yesterday. It is not happening in the way it has happened before. They have formally stopped it. It needs to get going again,” he said.

The envoy said stability was also threatened by the worsening situation of the Palestinian Authority, saying some governments who helped fund it had “checked out”.

“There is hardly any money coming in from donors to the PA and that needs to change.

“If you cannot pay salaries to public employees, if you cannot deliver health services, if you cannot buy medicine, if you cannot get the schools [funded], then we are in a very dire situation,” he said, adding that UN funding was already about $1bn (£830m) alone in Gaza, which is controlled by the Palestinian militant group Hamas.

“We have significant programmes in the West Bank as well. But the UN cannot take over this responsibility. We cannot govern Palestine. We have no option or alternative to having a functional PA.”

It brings the total amount of military aid given to Ukraine to more than $29.3bn (£24.31bn) since February 2022.

The package includes ground-launched small-diameter bombs (GLSDB) which can hit targets 150km (93 miles) away.

But officials refused to be drawn on speculation that the munitions could be used to attack parts of annexed Crimea.

“When it comes to Ukrainian plans on operations, clearly that is their decision,” Pentagon spokesperson Brig Gen Pat Ryder told reporters.

“This gives them a longer-range capability, long-range fires capability, that will enable them, again, to conduct operations in defence of their country and take back their sovereign territory, Russian-occupied areas.”

Russia illegally annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and considers it part of its territory. But it has come under sporadic fire from Ukrainian forces in recent months.

Western nations have repeatedly ruled out providing Ukraine with offensive weapons – such as fighter jets – which it could use to strike against Russia itself.

In a tweet, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked the US and President Joe Biden for the additional aid.

“The more long-range our weapons are and the more mobile our troops are, the sooner Russia’s brutal aggression will end,” Mr Zelensky wrote. “Together with [the US] we stand against terror.”

Previously, Ukraine’s longest range weapon was the Himars rocket system, which can hit targets at a range of up to 80km (50 miles). Kyiv used the system to devastating effect during its counter-offensive in the south and east last year.

The GLSDB also gives Ukraine forces an ability to strike anywhere in the Russian-occupied Donbas, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions. It also allows Ukraine to threaten Russian supply lines in the east.

Manufactured by Boeing and Saab, GLSDB is a gliding rocket with a small bomb attached, capable of striking a target within one metre of its position.

And it can be fired from a variety of weapons systems, including the Himars and M270 MLRS systems already in use in Ukraine. However, both the Pentagon and Boeing refused to comment on delivery dates for the system, with some reports suggesting that it could take up to nine months before it reaches Ukraine.

The new package – which will also include additional Himars missiles and 250 Javelin anti-armour systems – comes amid mounting concerns that Western nations have been too slow to provide fresh military aid to Ukraine.

“GLSDB should have been approved last fall, US House of Representatives Armed Services Chair Mike Rogers said in a tweet. “Every day it’s not approved is a day it’s delayed getting it into the hands of a Ukrainian ready to kill a Russian.”

In recent days, reports have emerged that a Russian offensive in the eastern Donbas region has been gaining momentum, with pro-Kremlin bloggers suggesting that the town of Bakhmut, long a focal point of Russian attacks, has been surrounded from three-sides.

But President Zelensky said his forces were entrenched around the town and would not surrender it to Russian assaults.

“We consider Backhmut to be our fortress,” the Ukrainian leader said. “If weapon [deliveries] are accelerated – namely long-range weapons – we will not only not withdraw from Bakhmut, we will begin to de-occupy Donbas, which has been occupied since 2014.”

Mr Zelensky said earlier that a long-rumoured Russian spring offensive in the region had already begun and his Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said earlier this week that Moscow had mobilised some 500,000 troops for the renewed assault.

Meanwhile, the Ukrainian leader has been holding new EU accession talks with the bloc’s leaders, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and Council President Charles Michel, in Kyiv.

Speaking after the summit, Mr Zelensky said the leaders had reached an “understanding that it is possible to start negotiations on Ukraine’s membership in the European Union this year”.

But Ms von der Leyen said there were “no rigid timelines” in place and emphasised that Ukraine had political goals it must meet before joining the block.

The EU has repeatedly underlined the need for Ukraine to step up its fight against endemic corruption, reform its judiciary by weeding out political interference and strengthen its economy.

Elsewhere, Germany has announced plans to send Leopard 1 tanks to Ukraine. The earlier model of the Leopard 2s – which Berlin has already promised to provide – can be delivered to Kyiv sooner than the advanced model.

Members of the Educational Institute of Scotland (EIS) have held three weeks of rolling strikes affecting two council areas each day.

The last day of that action will take place on Monday in Inverclyde and Shetland.

However further industrial action is planned for the end of February and beginning of March.

Ministers and councils have said the union’s requested 10% pay rise is unaffordable.

The current 5% offer includes rises of up to 6.85% for the lowest-paid staff.

More talks have taken place between the Scottish government, council body Cosla and unions but no further pay offer was made.

Ms Somerville said: “While four offers have been made to date, these have been rejected by teaching unions. Further compromise is clearly required in order to secure a fair and sustainable settlement.

“Today’s discussion was focused on progressing opportunities for compromise. There was a shared understanding that a new offer would not be made.

“Only Cosla as the employer, can make a new pay offer, through the structures of the Scottish Negotiating Committee for teachers.”

On Thursday, the EIS claimed it was within the first minister’s power to end the dispute.

EIS Salaries convener Des Morris said: “The only thing that will settle this dispute is an improved offer to Scotland’s teachers, one that is both fair and affordable to them, which will involve additional new money from the Scottish government. This is what was done to settle disputes with other local government workers.

“It is the first minister who has ultimate control over the purse strings so, if she wishes this dispute to be settled soon, the first minister should authorise the cabinet secretary and her officials to release the comparatively modest additional funding needed to end this dispute.”

Mr Morris said that “little or no” progress had been made over pay in the last several months and claimed there were no further meetings of the Scottish Negotiating Committee for Teachers (SNCT) planned.

He added “As ever, the EIS remains ready and willing to re-enter discussions with the Scottish government and Scottish local authorities to discuss a new pay offer for teachers.

“We are not, however, willing to continue discussing the same offer that has now been rejected by teachers twice.

“The Scottish government and Cosla must come up with an improved offer to allow pay discussions to progress towards an agreement that genuinely reflects both the soaring cost of living and the value of Scotland’s teachers.”

Speaking to the BBC, Jake Berry said MPs and ministers were “not some form of special human being” and should be treated “like anyone else”.

Mr Raab, also the justice secretary, is facing several complaints from civil servants who have worked with him in a range of government departments.

He has denied allegations of bullying.

In November, Mr Raab asked Prime Minister Rishi Sunak to launch an investigation into his own conduct after claims emerged about his behaviour towards staff.

The inquiry – led by senior lawyer Adam Tolley KC – is ongoing, but Mr Sunak has come under pressure to suspend Mr Raab until it is concluded.

Mr Berry, who was Conservative Party chairman in 2022, told Radio 4’s Week in Westminster: “It would be very bizarre if you had someone in any other workplace who wasn’t suspended pending that investigation.

“MPs and ministers are not some form of special human being – I think they should just be treated like anyone else is in their workplace.”

He said there should be a formal mechanism whereby ministers could be suspended during investigations.

Currently, it is not possible for a prime minister to formally temporarily remove a minister – although they could sack someone with the understanding the minister would return if cleared by an investigation.

Hannah White, from the Institute for Government think tank, says introducing a formal suspension mechanism could have some advantages – including allowing a minister to claim back lost salary if an inquiry concluded they had not broken any rules.

However, she says it could discourage prime ministers from ordering investigations in the first place and increase ministerial turnover.

Asked about Mr Sunak’s handling of the standards issues, Mr Berry said: “We have a system in Parliament that you’re either in a job or you’re not in a job

“The way these sort of complaints would be dealt with in the private sector is you would be suspended while they were investigated.”

Labour and the Liberal Democrats, as well as the FDA union for senior civil servants, have also called for Mr Raab’s suspension.

Mr Sunak has said he will wait for the outcome of Mr Tolley’s inquiry before taking any action.