Oil falls $7 on Russia-Ukraine talk hopes, China lockdowns

LONDON: Oil prices fell around $7 a barrel on Monday as investors pinned hopes on diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Russia to end their conflict, while a surge in COVID-19 cases in China spooked the markets.

Brent was down by $6.78, or 6%, at $105.89 a barrel at 1358 GMT and US crude fell $7.01, or 6.4%, to $102.32.

Both benchmarks have surged since Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine and are up roughly 40% in the year to date.

Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are set to talk again on Monday via video link. Negotiators had given their most upbeat assessments after weekend negotiations, suggesting there could be positive results within days.

“Beside new talks between Ukraine and Russia, I guess new lockdowns in China are the reason for a negative start of the week for crude oil,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo.

A northeastern Chinese province on Monday imposed a rare travel ban on its population as the region’s Omicron outbreak helped drive China’s tally of new local COVID-19 cases so far this year higher than the total in 2021.

“Oil prices might continue moderating this week as investors have been digesting the impact of sanctions on Russia, along with parties showing signs of negotiation towards [a] ceasefire,” said Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets.

Russia’s output of oil and gas condensate rose to 11.12 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in March, two sources familiar with production data told Reuters, despite sanctions.

The United States has announced a ban on Russian oil imports and Britain said it would phase them out by the end of 2022. Russia is the world’s top exporter of crude and oil products combined, shipping about 7 million bpd or 7% of global supplies.

A senior minister said British Prime Minister Boris Johnson was trying to persuade Saudi Arabia to increase its oil output, while International Energy Agency (IEA) chief Fatih Birol urged oil-producing countries to pump more.

India said it would take “appropriate” steps to calm the rise in oil prices, indicating the country could release more oil from its national stocks if required.

Indian officials also said New Delhi was considering a Russian offer to buy its crude oil and other commodities at discounted prices via a rupee-rouble transaction.

Meanwhile, investors are watching this week’s meeting of the US Federal Reserve, which is expected to start raising interest rates, a move that would boost the dollar and could push down oil prices.

A stronger greenback makes dollar-denominated oil more expensive for holders of foreign currencies.

People in island communities in Scotland are among those who are bearing the brunt of the cost of living crisis.

Like many in rural areas, where public transport options are limited, they are reliant on their cars and have seen fuel costs soar in recent weeks.

The price of heating their homes is also rising – most rely on electricity and heating oil and don’t have access to mains gas, which is much cheaper.

It means fuel poverty levels in the Western Isles and Highland council areas are the worst in Scotland, according to Energy Action Scotland.

And with gas and electricity bills due to rise in April, and fears of further increases in October, the charity says more households look set to fall into fuel poverty next month.

In South Uist in the Western Isles, residents are well used to spending a little bit more than their mainland neighbours on everyday essentials.

But in recent weeks the price of petrol has risen to £1.80 a litre and over the last few years the cost of filling a tank of heating oil has more than doubled.

Food and other essentials have also increased in price, and there is little option to shop around.

Hotelier Calum Macaulay said he was considering closing his business, the Lochboisdale Hotel, in the winter to keep costs down.

“We are totally reliant on the oil tank. But the cost to fill this tank now has doubled,” he said.

“At the usage rate of approximately 500 litres per month it is costing us over £500 just to keep the hot water running in the hotel.

“We have seriously got to look at the Lochboisdale as purely a seasonal operation.”

Islander Stewart Curtis said people on South Uist have a limited range of goods to pick from when they are doing their food shopping.

“On the islands we don’t have the option to shop cheaply,” he said.

And another island resident, Neil Campbell, who delivers medical supplies and needs his van for work, said in the last two weeks petrol and diesel costs had gone up by about 20p a week.

He said: “The cost of living is extortionate. In the shops there is a very poor selection of products but you’re paying through the nose for it.

“Here on the islands we pay more for fuel at the best of times. It is something we just have to live with.”

He added: “You just have to become more careful with whatever journeys you have to do. I don’t jump in the van and drive as much as I used to do.”

Scotland’s record rates of Covid are being driven by a new variant of Omicron, the chief medical officer has said.

Professor Sir Gregor Smith said about 85% of cases in Scotland were thought to be the BA.2 variant.

The World Health Organisation has said BA.2 is more transmissible than the original BA.1 Omicron strain, which emerged in Scotland in December.

However there is no evidence to suggest it is any more severe.

Scotland’s remaining Covid restrictions, including the end of the legal obligation to wear masks inside public buildings, are due to be lifted next Monday.

Ahead of Nicola Sturgeon’s update to Holyrood on the issue, Prof Smith said a “cautious approach… is the right approach”.

Prof Smith told BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland that countries with the BA.2 sub-variant had experienced the “quickest, sharpest rises in case rates”.

He said Northern Ireland was the first UK nation to identify a rise in BA.2 and they now estimate about 1 in 13 people there have Covid.

“Scotland is probably the country who has experienced the greatest rise in BA.2 next,” Prof Smith said.

“Our proportion is currently about 85% just now. And you can see those countries that have BA.2 just now are experiencing the quickest, sharpest rises in case rates.”

He said England and Wales were now beginning to experience this as well. “In my view it is undoubtedly driven by the presence of BA.2,” he added

The Office for National Statistics estimated on Friday that Scotland had the highest rate of Covid infections since sampling began in autumn 2020.

Almost 300,000 people – about in 18 – had Covid in the previous week. The estimated infection levels have risen for six consecutive weeks.

Figures released last Wednesday showed the number of people in Scottish hospitals with Covid had reached its highest level for 13 months, with 1,636 patients.

That figure has since risen to 1,805 patients, with 27 in intensive care, according to statistics published on Monday.

Experts said numbers in intensive care were very low because of vaccinations and new treatments, but large numbers of Covid patients had an impact on bed availability and other services.

People ‘adapting behaviour’

Prof Smith said he had been keeping a close eye on case numbers for the last three weeks.

“Clearly when you see cases begin to increase like this it does give you a little bit of concern,” he said.

Hospital occupancy began to rise around February 14, he added.

“We’re seeing more older population becoming impacted on this occasion, and that’s leading to some longer lengths of stay, which is driving occupancy up as well,” he said.

Prof Smith said there were “some hopeful signs” the hospital admission rate had “begun to kind of top out just a little bit over the course of the latter end of last week”.

Ministers would make a decision on whether to go ahead with lifting rules on face masks shortly, he said.

Asked what advice he would give to ministers, he said: “I think that a cautious approach at this point in time is probably the right approach, and we’re already seeing the public adopting those additional protections.”

He said data from contact tracers showed some people were adapting their behaviour by reducing their contacts and avoiding busy places, while the use of face masks was also up.

But Prof Smith said he could not predict when Covid-19 would become part of the background of everyday life.

“The one thing I’ve learned about this virus, more than anything else, is not to become blasé about it. It will continue to evolve. It is still at an unstable stage in its development,” he said.

“Until we’ve got a global stability of this virus we can’t say we will have domestic stability.”

Last week Health Secretary Sajid Javid said the UK government had “no concerns at all” about sub-variants.

He said Omicron had been the last variant to be considered of concern but that the country had “successfully navigated” it, but he said the government continued to monitor the situation “very carefully”.

Petrol prices set to ease after hitting record highs : UK

The average price for a litre of petrol hit £1.63 on Sunday after rising above £1.60 for the first time last week.

Diesel remained above £1.73 a litre, but the AA said “wild” pump prices should stabilise, unless global oil prices take off again.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sparked oil costs to surge worldwide.

The AA said filling up a typical 55-litre car tank now costs £89.90p on average, up from £68.57 a year ago.

Oil prices soared after Russia invaded Ukraine, with the price of Brent crude oil – the global benchmark for prices – hitting a near 14-year high at one point.

However, in the past few days, the price of oil has dropped as fears that the European Union would follow the US and Canada in banning Russian oil have eased.

Brent crude was down 3% at $109 per barrel early on Monday.

The RAC said drivers would have to stomach probably more rises this week, but added they “should soon get some respite from pump prices jumping by several pence a litre every day as oil and wholesale prices appear to have settled”.

“The price hikes seen over the weekend are still a result of the oil price rise which began at the start of the month and peaked early last week at $137 a barrel,” said RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams.

“As the oil price has now fallen back, we should hopefully reach the peak and start to see prices going the other way to reflect the big drop in wholesale costs seen at the end of last week, subject to no further spikes in the barrel price this week.”

The reason higher prices at the pumps are likely to remain despite falling commodity prices is due to the way retailers buy the fuel and the time lag between purchasing at a certain price and then selling it on.

Yet, there is a concern some retailers might be reluctant to lower their prices for fear of being caught out if wholesale costs jump back up again.

Luke Bosdet, the AA’s fuel price spokesman, said a 10.6p-a-litre slump in wholesale petrol costs on Wednesday and Thursday last week, followed by oil’s fall in value, had produced “bizarre price anomalies”.

“In one town this weekend, filling a tank at one forecourt was more than a pound cheaper than directly across the road at another,” he said.

Mr Bosdet said weekends were the busiest time for forecourts and the rush by drivers to beat further potential price increases had pushed up demand, which had actually led to even higher prices at the pumps as stations had to resupply at a faster rate.

Oil prices are mainly determined by the price of crude oil and the dollar exchange rate, as agreements are made in dollars.

Russia is the third largest oil exporter and some Western countries, for example the US and Canada, decided to halt imports from the country in response to Russia’s actions. It means demand for oil from other producers has increased, leading to increased prices.

The UK only imports about 6% of oil from Russia, so is not as dependent on Russia for the commodity supply as other European countries are and has said it plans to phase it out.

It is, however, affected by the global shifts in price.

But the price of Brent crude dropped in recent days, due to reduced fears of a European ban on Russian oil, and also partly due to speculation that extra supplies could come onto the market from Iran, Venezuela and the UAE.

The conflict in Ukraine has led to concerns being raised by Western nations about where they get their energy from.

Energy Minister Greg Hands said the UK’s transition to cleaner forms of energy production was “an issue of national security” and not just of decarbonisation.

Speaking at an event in London, he said: “By switching to cheaper power generated in the UK, for the UK, we will ensure that we’re not dependent on any unfriendly foreign country to keep our homes warm and lit.”

However, Mr Hands acknowledged that the transition to cleaner energy sources would take time, and there was still a need to invest in domestic fossil fuel production.

‘No cap’ on refugees under new UK visa scheme :Ukraine War

It is hoped tens of thousands of displaced people will benefit from the Homes for Ukraine refugee scheme.

More details will be set out later, before a website goes live for people to express an interest in helping.

Hosts will receive £350 a month as a “thank you” from the government.

Health Secretary Sajid Javid told BBC Breakfast there would be “no cap” on the number of people who can be supported through the scheme.

“I’m pleased that we’re doing this because as a country we have a very proud record of offering sanctuary to people from wars and from conflicts,” he added.

The government has so far faced criticism – including from its own MPs – over the speed and scale of its response to the refugee crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Under the new scheme people in the UK will be able to nominate an individual or family to stay with them rent-free, either in their own home or in another property, for at least six months.

Hosts are not required to personally know the refugee they want to host. They will be matched with those seeking refuge in the UK after submitting a form.

Mr Javid said once refugees arrive they will be allowed to stay in the UK “for at least three years”.

They will have access to the NHS and other public services, and their children will be able to attend local schools.

Local authorities will also receive £10,500 in extra funding per refugee for support services – with more for children of school age.

Applications to host refugees will be made online and both hosts and refugees will be vetted.

Levelling Up Secretary Michael Gove will make a statement in Parliament later to set out further details.

Asked if he might host a Ukrainian family himself, Mr Javid said it was something he and his wife were “starting to have a conversation” about.

“Whatever I do at a personal level, I most certainly will be helping,” he added.

The first hosts and refugees will be matched this week, allowing the first Ukrainians to arrive in the UK through this route in about two weeks’ time, the BBC’s chief political correspondent Adam Fleming says.

One of those hoping to help through the new scheme is Maxine Taylor, who lives alone in a four-bedroom house in Godalming, Surrey.

Maxine, who is self-employed and works part-time, says the “peace and quiet” of her more rural home might be a better option for traumatised refugees than a busy city.

But she does want more information from the government about the scheme – such as whether or not hosts will be taxed on the £350 monthly payment, and how the matching service will work.

She also wants to make sure anyone she takes in gets the mental health support they will need after fleeing a war zone.

Maxine says she’s been wanting to find a way to help Ukrainians “since day one” of the invasion, and has felt “frustrated” that the government’s visa schemes have been “so slow” to get off the ground.

“I’ve just been absolutely horrified by what’s going on,” Maxine says, adding that seeing images of young women and men signing up to fight for their country has “really touched me”.

“I just feel I’d like to do my bit… we’ve got to help.”

Presentational grey line

Organisations such as charities and churches will eventually be able to sponsor refugees, though there is no start date for this phase of the scheme yet.

Homes for Ukraine is the second visa scheme the government has set up since the war broke out.

The first has allowed Ukrainians with an immediate or extended family member in the UK to apply for a family visa to join them.

Some 4,000 visas have so far been granted through that route, the latest Home Office figures show.

The Home Office has defended requiring security checks on Ukrainians fleeing Russia’s invasion. It says it must ensure the UK helps those in genuine need as it’s seen people falsely claim to be Ukrainian.

Labour’s London Mayor Sadiq Khan said the UK’s plans to help those fleeing Ukraine have been “embarrassing” compared with those of other countries.

He told Good Morning Britain that people, businesses and councils were “ready to step up” and welcome refugees but the system to do so has been “far too complicated”.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer previously described the Home Office’s response as “too slow, too narrow, too mean”, while Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey said Home Secretary Priti Patel should be sacked for “incompetence, indifference and sheer inhumanity” in leading the response.

The NSPCC said it had concerns about safety checks on prospective hosts through the Homes for Ukraine scheme.

The children’s charity said it was “vital child protection is built into every stage of the government’s and local authorities’ response to this crisis”.

Putin to pay for ‘war crimes’

Asked about the bombing of a maternity and children’s hospital in the city of Mariupol last week, Mr Javid said Russia had made some 31 attacks on health facilities in Ukraine since its invasion.

“These are war crimes and Putin will be held responsible,” he said.

In a visit to the Hague on Monday, Justice Secretary Dominic Raab said the UK would give financial and technical support to the International Criminal Court to help it investigate the situation in Ukraine.

He said it was vital to ensure anyone who committed war crimes was held to account and that commanders on the ground, as well as the Kremlin, “need to know that right now”.

Meanwhile, 21 Ukrainian children with cancer have arrived in the UK to receive NHS treatment, the health secretary said.

The children have been given six-month visas to get them out of Ukraine quickly but Mr Javid told Sky News these would be extended “to at least three years”.

A protest on the balcony of a mansion believed to belong to Vladimir Putin ally Oleg Deripaska is continuing, despite the arrival of riot police.

The protesters said they were reclaiming 5 Belgrave Square, in central London, for Ukrainian refugees.

Billionaire energy tycoon Mr Deripaska is one of the oligarchs sanctioned by the UK government following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Riot police entered the property earlier but found nobody inside.

A US journalist working in Ukraine has been shot dead in the town of Irpin, outside Kyiv, police say.

Brent Renaud, 50, was a journalist and filmmaker who was working in the region for Time.

Kyiv’s police chief Andriy Nebytov said he had been targeted by Russian soldiers. Two other journalists were injured and taken to hospital.

It is the first reported death of a foreign journalist covering the war in Ukraine.

One of the injured journalists, Juan Arredondo, told an Italian reporter he had been with Renaud when they came under fire.

“We were across one of the first bridges in Irpin, going to film other refugees leaving, and we got into a car”, he said in a video published on Twitter.

“Somebody offered to take us to the other bridge and we crossed a checkpoint, and they start shooting at us. So the driver turned around, and they kept shooting; there’s two of us. My friend is Brent Renaud, and he’s been shot and left behind… I saw him being shot in the neck.”

Photographs are circulating online showing a press ID for Renaud issued by the New York Times.

In a statement, the newspaper said it was “deeply saddened” to hear of Renaud’s death but that he had not been working for the newspaper in Ukraine.

Renaud last worked for the publication in 2015, the Times said, and the press ID he was wearing in Ukraine had been issued years ago.

Time editor-in-chief and CEO Edward Felsenthal and Ian Orefice, the president and chief operating officer of Time and Time Studios, said they were “devastated by the loss”.

“As an award-winning filmmaker and journalist, Brent tackled the toughest stories around the world often alongside his brother Craig Renaud,” the statement said.

Renaud had reported from Afghanistan, Iraq and Haiti. He won a Peabody Award for his work on a 2014 series on Chicago schools, Last Chance High.

He often worked alongside his brother, Craig, also a filmmaker. It is not known whether Craig also travelled to Ukraine.

Renaud’s death comes less than two weeks after Ukrainian journalist Yevhenii Skaum, a camera operator for the Ukrainian television channel LIVE, was killed when a TV transmission tower in Kviv was hit by shelling.

A few days later, a British journalist covering the war in Ukraine was shot and wounded after coming under fire in Kyiv.

 

Two employees stabbed inside New York museum

Two female employees were stabbed inside New York‘s prestigious Museum of Modern Art on Saturday, allegedly by an angry patron, police said, causing the museum to be evacuated.

The women were injured “in the back, in the collarbone, in the back of the neck” but are both “going to be ok,” said John Miller, New York police department deputy commissioner of intelligence and counterterrorism.

The suspect, who had not been arrested as of late Saturday afternoon, was known to police as a regular visitor to MoMA, whose membership card had been expired after “two incidents involving disorderly conduct” in recent days, Miller said.

On Saturday, when the man was refused entry, “he became upset… then jumped over the reception desk and proceeded to attack and stab two employees of the museum multiple times,” Miller added.

The two were rushed to the hospital following the attack, which occurred around 4:15 pm (2115 GMT).

Officers put up a police cordon, and the museum remained closed for Saturday.

Multiple news outlets, as well as social media posts, showed images of people standing outside the museum, a popular tourist destination, after being evacuated.

MoMA includes artwork by artists such as Vincent Van Gogh, Pablo Picasso, Andy Warhol and Frida Kahlo, to name a few.

Chinese city locks down as COVID cases spike

SHANGHAI: A northeastern Chinese city of nine million people was ordered to lock down on Friday, as authorities scramble to halt a fresh COVID-19 outbreak that has pushed nationwide case counts to their highest in two years.

Changchun, the capital of Jilin province and an important industrial base, has ordered residents to work from home. One person will be allowed out every two days to buy “daily necessities”, and said it would institute mass testing.

After the highly transmissible Omicron variant broke through China’s defences, COVID cases across the country soared past the 1,000 mark this week for the first time since the pandemic’s early days in 2020, from less than 100 just three weeks ago.

There were 1,369 cases across more than a dozen provinces, according to the latest daily official count released earlier Friday.

Also on Friday, Shanghai ordered its schools to close and shift to online instruction.

COVID-19 was first detected in China in late 2019 but the government has kept it largely under control with snap lockdowns and mass testing, while keeping its borders mostly closed.

As a result, its case counts are extremely low by international standards.

But the aggressive approach has caused pandemic fatigue in China.

The country’s central economic planning agency recently warned that big lockdowns can hurt the economy, and a top Chinese scientist suggested the country should aim to co-exist with the virus, like other nations.

The government has invested much of its prestige in its ability to control COVID, however, and Friday’s measures appeared to pour water on hopes that China would soon scrap its zero-tolerance approach.

Number game: If three of PTI’s allies join Opposition, party will lose 17 MNAs

ISLAMABAD: The Opposition is holding negotiations with three allied parties of the ruling PTI – PMLQ, BAP, and the MQMP – in order to pass a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan.

These three parties have 17 representatives in the National Assembly. If these parties join the opposition, the PTI ruling alliance’s strength will fall to 162 from 179, and the total number of MNAs in the unified opposition would rise to 179.

To pass the no-trust motion, the Opposition needed the backing of 172 MNAs. The NA currently has a total membership of 341 members, with one seat empty.

The ruling coalition now has 179 MNAs in favour, while the Opposition has 162 MNAs in the lower house of parliament. The Opposition required the backing of ten more MNAs to dislodge the Imran Khan government.

The PML-Q and BAP each have five votes in the assembly, while the MQM-P has seven members. If these three parties join the opposition, the ruling alliance would lose 17 MNAs.

As a result, the treasury benches’ headcount would fall from 179 to 162, the same as the Opposition’s. These 17 MPs would increase the Opposition’s strength to 179, which is the current strength of the treasury benches.

PML-Q, MQM-P, BAP, three members of Grand Democratic Alliance (GDA), one each of Jamhoori Watan Party and Awami Muslim League, and two independent MPs are among the PTI government’s partners.

The Opposition benches are made up of 84 PML-N members, 56 PPP members, 15 MMA members, four BNP (Mengal) members, one ANP member, and two independents.