Month: April 2023

They met in California on Wednesday, a week after President Tsai was feted in New York with a leadership award.

Ms Tsai hailed their “strong and unique partnership”, and Mr McCarthy said that arms sales to Taiwan must continue.

Beijing, in turn, has vowed a “resolute response” and sent warships into the waters around the self-governed island.

Taiwan, it appears, is caught in the middle of a dangerous love triangle.

The timing of Ms Tsai’s visit is hardly a coincidence. In the US there is deep and growing hostility to China. And this is driving ever more open displays of support for Taiwan, with Democrats and Republicans competing to out-do each other.

It’s a big reason former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was so keen on landing in Taipei last summer, despite the fact that it set off a furious reaction from China. The self-governed island, which Beijing claims as part of its territory, is arguably the biggest flashpoint between the US and China.

“I was personally very opposed to the Pelosi visit,” says professor William Stanton, former director of the American Institute in Taiwan. “For a high-level politician from the US to make a visit to the island was just poking China without much reward. And the consequences were quite scary.”

Chinese missiles flew over the island as Beijing made blood-curdling threats. In capitals around the region governments began talking seriously about the timetable for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.

Despite that, as soon as he was elected house speaker this January, Mr McCarthy, a Republican, declared his intention to follow Ms Pelosi’s example. But President Tsai decided that was not a good idea, Prof Stanton says.

“I think it was quite clear that Kevin McCarthy wanted to pull a Pelosi,” he says. “But Tsai Ing-wen said, ‘no thank you, how about we have tea together in California instead’.”

President Tsai may not want another contentious visit by a US leader to Taiwan just yet – but she also needs to show China that it will not succeed in shutting down contact between a democratically-elected government in Taipei and its most powerful ally in Washington.

And so, the meeting in California. Mr McCarthy has far from downplayed it, calling the meeting “bipartisan”, despite China’s warning that the US was “playing with fire on the Taiwan question”.

Afterwards the White House said there was no need for Beijing to “overreact” to the meeting.

This so-called “transit diplomacy” is crucial for Taiwan, says Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University.

Over the years, China has successfully poached many of Taiwan’s formal allies, whittling down the number of governments that recognise Taipei to just 13.

“These international visits match Taiwan society’s needs for international recognition,” Mr Sung says. “When there’s an absence of international recognition, these other proxy indicators of international support are important to [the] Taiwanese.”

Meanwhile the Communist Party of China has mounted its own charm offensive, by inviting President Tsai’s predecessor, Ma Ying-jeou, to tour the mainland.

Mr Ma went on an unprecedented five-city tour, ostensibly to pay homage to his ancestors. He has indeed visited their graves in central China. But the trip is also political. In fact, it’s the first time a former president of Taiwan has ever been invited to the People’s Republic of China since its founding in 1949.

“Beijing is trying to soften the tone towards Taiwan… winning more hearts and minds, and also avoiding a surge of Taiwanese nationalism during the [2024] presidential campaign,” Mr Sung says.

Mr Ma’s visit, he adds, provided the necessary “political cover” to do that.

When he landed in Nanjing last week, Mr Ma made a strikingly political speech: “The people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait are Chinese. And both are descendants of the Yan and Yellow Emperors.”

“Beijing is being nice to Ma Ying-jeou because he represents capitulation,” Prof Stanton says. “He says ‘we are all Chinese’. That’s something he and the Chinese agree on, but it’s not something the Taiwanese agree on.”

The risk in Mr Ma’s strategy is that more than 60% of Taiwan’s residents, according to surveys, describe themselves as Taiwanese, and not Chinese.

But there could also be a reward waiting in the wings. Surveys show that more than half of Taiwan believes war with China is now likely. And Mr Ma’s aim is to convince Taiwanese voters that only his party – the Kuomintang (KMT) – can avoid that war, Mr Sung says.

“It’s about cementing his legacy as the bridge between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait. And on a domestic political level Taiwan is starting its presidential campaign. The KMT argument is that we can bring peace with China.”

But the elephant in the room is the deteriorating relationship between Taiwan’s two suitors – Washington and Beijing. That relationship is worse today than at any time since the US and China officially recognised each other in 1979, says Bonnie Glaser, head of the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund of the United States.

“They [Beijing] are not taking calls from President Biden or the Pentagon. Congress has declared China an existential threat,” she says.

For decades Washington has managed a rather delicate status quo, acknowledging, if not supporting, Beijing’s position that there is only one Chinese government – the one on the mainland. It has maintained official ties with that government, and not Taiwan, since 1979. But it has also remained a steadfast ally to Taipei, guaranteeing to help the island defend itself.

But the fear is that China now believes that the US is set on changing the status quo which has helped keep the peace in the Taiwan Strait for the last 40-odd years.

“President Biden told Xi Jinping he is not using Taiwan as a weapon, that he does not support the separation of Taiwan from China,” Ms Glaser says.

But such assurances are unlikely to amount to much in the wake of contentious state visits or official meetings with Taiwan’s leaders, she adds.

So while Mr Ma tours China and Ms Tsai has tea in California, what Taiwan also needs is for Mr Xi to pick up the phone.

“I know I can count on you to bring Russia to its senses,” he told Mr Xi at the start of talks in Beijing.

The French leader is on a state visit to China, which has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of its neighbour.

Mr Macron is also seeking to bolster trade ties. He is joined by European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen.

The visit is being highly scrutinised after years of deteriorating relations between the West and China.

The French president is accompanied by a large business delegation. Ms von der Leyen is taking part in the talks at his invitation.

On Thursday afternoon, Mr Macron was treated to an elaborate military parade in Beijing, before entering closed-door talks with Mr Xi.

The two are expected to hold a three-way discussion with Ms von der Leyen later in the evening, and attend a state dinner.

In meetings earlier on Thursday with other top Chinese officials, including the country’s number two Premier Li Qiang, Mr Macron and Ms von der Leyen had called for increased dialogue with Beijing.

Shortly after he landed in Beijing on Wednesday, Mr Macron told reporters there was growing concern over the “inescapable spiral of mounting tensions” between the West and China stoked by the war.

But “China’s interest isn’t to have a lasting war” and Beijing could play a “major role” in ending it, he added.

China has released a 12-point plan for peace in Ukraine, amid a recent push to play a bigger role in international diplomacy.

While Western nations have been generally dismissive of the proposals, Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky has called for direct talks with Mr Xi – who has yet to publicly respond.

Mr Macron also pushed back on the idea of decoupling from the Chinese economy, noting the strong business ties between France and China.

He is travelling with a delegation that includes business leaders, artists and museum officials. Among them include top executives from plane manufacturer Airbus, luxury group LVMH, and nuclear energy producer EDF.

The trip to Beijing, four years after Mr Macron last paid a visit to Mr Xi, takes place during strikes and unrest in France over unpopular reforms of the pension system.

A video showed Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud being encouraged to shake hands by their Chinese counterpart in Beijing.

A joint statement said they discussed reopening diplomatic missions within two months and resuming flights.

The states agreed to restore ties in a deal brokered by China last month.

It was seen as sign of China’s growing influence in the Middle East and a challenge to the dominant role of the US in the region.

China has close diplomatic and economic ties with both Saudi Arabia and Iran, while US-Saudi relations have been strained in recent years and the US has had no diplomatic relations with Iran for four decades.

Mr Amir-Abdollahian and Prince Faisal emphasised the importance of implementing the deal to restore ties in a way that “expands mutual trust and the fields of co-operation and helps create security, stability and prosperity”.

They also said they had discussed the resumption of bilateral visits. An Iranian official said earlier this month that President Ebrahim Raisi had accepted an invitation from King Salman bin Abdulaziz Al Saud to visit Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia cut ties with Iran seven years ago after crowds stormed its embassy in Tehran. This followed Saudi Arabia’s execution of a prominent Shia Muslim cleric. Tensions between them have remained high since then.

This rapprochement between the two great Middle East rivals is an extraordinary turn of events, as well as something of a diplomatic triumph for China.

Eight years after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman took his country to war across the border in Yemen, hoping to crush the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels, reality has set in in Riyadh.

The Saudi leadership has reluctantly come to accept two unpalatable truths.

The first is that Iran is now a powerful military force with a huge arsenal of missiles and proxy militias across the region, a force that Saudi Arabia and its allies are unlikely to ever defeat.

The second is that Riyadh can no longer rely on Washington, despite the nominal strategic alliance between the two countries.

The Saudis liked President Donald Trump, who made Riyadh his first overseas presidential visit in 2017. But they distrusted President Barack Obama before that, after he reached out to Iran and announced a “pivot to the Pacific”.

Today, relations with Joe Biden’s White House are strained as the Saudis cut oil production, raising prices at the pumps despite US pleas.

So the Saudi-Iran agreement is the latest sign that Riyadh is forging its own path, making new alliances, even if it is with countries the US views as strategic threats.

Saudi Arabia, which sees itself as the leading Sunni Muslim power, and Iran, the largest Shia Muslim country, have been locked in a struggle for regional dominance for decades.

But in recent years, their rivalry has been exacerbated by proxy wars across the Middle East.

In Yemen, Saudi Arabia has been backing pro-government forces in their war against the Houthi rebel movement since 2015. Iran has denied that it is smuggling weapons to the Houthis, who have carried out missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and oil infrastructure.

Saudi Arabia has also accused Iran of interfering in Lebanon and Iraq, where Iranian-backed Shia militias have amassed vast military and political influence; of attacking cargo and oil tankers in the Gulf; and of being behind a missile and drone strike in 2019 on major Saudi oil installations. Iran has denied being behind the attacks on the ships and oil facilities.

The kingdom also opposed the 2015 Iran nuclear deal and supported then President Trump’s decision to abandon it and reinstate economic sanctions five years ago. Indirect negotiations between the Biden administration and Iran to revive the deal have been stalled for a year.

Mr Murrell, 58, the husband of former first minister Nicola Sturgeon, was arrested on Wednesday morning.

He was questioned while police searched their Glasgow home and SNP headquarters as part of their investigation.

Ms Sturgeon said she had “no prior knowledge” of Police Scotland’s plans. The force said inquiries were ongoing.

In a statement, Police Scotland said Mr Murrell was arrested at 07:45 and released shortly before 19:00.

“Officers also carried out searches today at a number of addresses as part of the investigation,” the statement added.

“A report will be sent to the Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service.”

Mr Murrell resigned as SNP chief executive last month, after holding the post since 1999.

He has been married to Ms Sturgeon since 2010.

A spokesperson for the former first minister said she was not warned about Police Scotland’s “action or intentions” before the arrest.

They added: “Ms Sturgeon will fully cooperate with Police Scotland if required, however at this time no such request has been made.”

Ms Sturgeon was succeeded last week as Scotland’s first minister by Humza Yousaf.

Following Mr Murrell’s arrest Mr Yousaf said that it was “a difficult day” for the SNP. He said his party had “fully cooperated” with police and would continue to do so.

Police activity continued at the Glasgow home of Mr Murrell and Ms Sturgeon on Wednesday evening.

Ms Sturgeon had been inside the house when officers arrived to make the arrest.

The house was sealed off with blue and white tape. A tent was erected on the driveway with a van parked inside.

Officers could also be seen searching a small shed and storage box in the back garden.

In Edinburgh at least six marked police vehicles were parked outside SNP HQ and officers carrying green crates and other equipment were seen going inside.

In July 2021 Police Scotland launched a formal investigation into the SNP’s finances after receiving complaints about how donations were used.

Questions had been raised about funds given to the party for use in a fresh independence referendum campaign.

Seven people made complaints and a probe was set up following talks with prosecutors.

Ms Sturgeon had insisted at the time that she was “not concerned” about the party’s finances.

She said “every penny” of cash raised in online crowdfunding campaigns would be spent on the independence drive.

According to a statement, the SNP raised a total of £666,953 through referendum-related appeals between 2017 and 2020. The party pledged to spend these funds on the independence campaign.

Questions were raised after its accounts showed it had just under £97,000 in the bank at the end of 2019, and total net assets of about £272,000.

Last year it emerged Mr Murrell gave a loan of more than £100,000 to the SNP to help it out with a “cash flow” issue after the last election.

The then SNP’s chief executive loaned the party £107,620 in June 2021. The SNP had repaid about half of the money by October of that year.

At the time an SNP spokesman said the loan was a “personal contribution made by the chief executive to assist with cash flow after the Holyrood election”.

He said it had been reported in the party’s 2021 accounts, which were published by the Electoral Commission in August last year.

Weeks earlier, MP Douglas Chapman had resigned as party treasurer saying he had not been given the “financial information” to do the job.

Mr Murrell resigned last month after taking responsibility for misleading statements about a fall in party membership.

The number of members had fallen from the 104,000 it had two years ago to just over 72,000.

The release of Peter Murrell without charge isn’t the end of this matter. Detectives will send the results of their long investigation to prosecutors who’ll decide what happens next.

The Crown Office and Procurator Fiscal Service will have to be satisfied that there’s sufficient admissible evidence to justify a prosecution.

They’ll consider whether there’s enough to show a crime was committed and the suspect was responsible. They’ll also take the public interest into account.

That can be influenced by the particular circumstances of the case – for example, whether the person involved was in a position of trust or authority.

If they feel that there’s insufficient evidence, they can instruct the police to carry out further inquiries. And after that, if the Fiscal still isn’t satisfied that there’s enough to take it to court, the case would go no further.

Needless to say, all of this will take time.

The former president was charged with 34 counts in a Manhattan court in New York on Tuesday.

These relate to a hush money payment to porn star Stormy Daniels, who says they had an adulterous affair.

Mr Trump is the first US president in history to face a criminal trial.

“The only crime that I have committed is to fearlessly defend our nation from those who seek to destroy it,” the 76-year-old told supporters gathered at his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida after he appeared in court.

He said that the “fake case” was simply part of a Democratic conspiracy to interfere with next year’s presidential election, in which he is running.

Earlier, he sat stony-faced and silent for the nearly hour-long proceedings before Judge Juan Merchan, speaking out loud only in response to the judge’s questions and to enter his plea of not guilty. Mr Trump said nothing to reporters as he left court.

The case against the former president hinges on a hush-money payment of $130,000 (£104,000) made before the 2016 presidential election.

While such a payment is not illegal, spending money to help a presidential campaign but not disclosing it violates federal campaign finance law.

His former lawyer, Michael Cohen – who turned against his former boss – has said he made the payment at Mr Trump’s direction.

Each of the charges carries a maximum of four years in prison, although a judge could sentence Mr Trump to probation if he is convicted.

The odds of his being found guilty are so far unclear, but the charges have pulled the country into uncharted political territory.

Mr Trump’s trial could begin as early as January 2024, Judge Merchan said, meaning the Republican could be back in court just as primaries begin to select the party’s nominee.

Prosecutors also pointed to other payments they say were made via an intermediary on behalf of Mr Trump to suppress potentially politically damaging stories.

They allege $30,000 was paid to buy the silence of a doorman at Trump Tower who claimed Mr Trump had a lovechild.

And $150,000 was paid to Karen McDougal, a former Playboy model who said she had a sexual relationship with Mr Trump.

Prosecutors said both payments were made by the National Enquirer, a US tabloid whose publisher is a long-time ally of Mr Trump.

While a criminal conviction would not prevent Mr Trump from either running for president or from reclaiming the Oval Office, the prolonged legal fight could prove a major distraction for the Republican front-runner and may add a new layer of turmoil to his party’s primary.

Mr Trump is the focus of three other investigations, related to efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, and over his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House.