Month: October 2022

Mr Biden said Russia’s President Vladimir Putin was “not joking” when he spoke of using tactical nuclear weapons after suffering setbacks in Ukraine.

The US was “trying to figure out” Mr Putin’s way out of the war, he added.

The US and the EU have previously said Mr Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling should be taken seriously.

However, the US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan last week said that, despite Moscow’s nuclear hints, the US had seen no signs that Russia was imminently preparing to use a nuclear weapon.

Ukraine has been retaking territory occupied by Russia during its invasion that began on 24 February, including in the four regions Russia illegally annexed recently.

For several months US officials have been warning that Russia could resort to the use of weapons of mass destruction, if it suffers setbacks on the battlefield.

During a speech last Friday, the Russian leader said the US had created a “precedent” by using nuclear weapons against Japan at the end of World War Two – a comment that would not have gone unnoticed by Western governments, our Russia editor Steve Rosenberg points out.

Mr Putin has also threatened to use every means at his disposal to protect Russian territory.

President Biden said the reason the Russian leader had not been “not joking” when he talked about using tactical nuclear, biological or chemical weapons – “because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming”.

“For the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have a direct threat to the use of nuclear weapons, if in fact things continue down the path they’d been going,” Mr Biden told fellow Democrats.

“We have not faced the prospect of Armageddon since Kennedy and the Cuban missile crisis.”

In 1962, the US and the Soviet Union – under President John F Kennedy and Nikita Khrushchev – came close to a nuclear showdown over the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in Cuba.

The confrontation is considered by many experts to be the closest the world has ever come to a full-scale nuclear war.

Mr Biden told fellow Democrats the use of tactical nuclear, biological or chemical weapons could quickly spiral out of control.

He was speaking at the New York home of James Murdoch, son of media mogul Rupert Murdoch, for the Democratic fundraising event.

Mr Putin is facing a very difficult picture on the battlefield. Even as he signed the final papers formally annexing four regions of Ukraine – Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson – Kyiv’s forces were advancing inside those areas he had claimed.

Hundreds of thousands of men have been fleeing Russia rather than wait to be drafted to fight in Ukraine.

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has previously dismissed Moscow’s nuclear threats as a “constant narrative of Russian officials and propagandists”.

Paul Stronski, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ,told the BBC that Russia’s “destabilising rhetoric” is aimed at deterring the West, even though the West appears resolved to push back on it.

There has also been some pushback against Moscow’s nuclear threats in Russia itself. An editorial in the country’s mainstream Nezavisimaya Gazeta newspaper was heavily critical of “senior Russian officials” for “talking about the nuclear button”.

“To allow, in thoughts and words, the possibility of a nuclear conflict is a sure step to allowing it in reality.”

Russia’s foreign ministry spokeswoman told reporters on Thursday that Moscow had not changed its position that nuclear war “must never be waged”.

Ms Truss had declined to say whether the French President was a “friend or foe”, during her leadership campaign.

The French President said he hoped for a “new phase” in post-Brexit relations.

The pair agreed to step up cooperation on “ending” small boat crossings in the Channel and announced a summit in 2023.

Leaders from the EU, the UK, Turkey, Norway and the Balkans met at the first European Political Community in Prague on Thursday.

They discussed energy, migration and security, with a particular focus on the war in Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke via video link.

The summit, billed as a European Political Community beyond the EU, has been championed by Mr Macron, who told reporters on Thursday it sent a “message of unity”.

The prime minister and Mr Macron released a joint statement promising an “ambitious” package of measures aimed at “ending” small boat crossings on the Channel.

Mr Macron said: “We have values and history so I’m happy that we meet again.

“This is an island, but this island didn’t move from the rest of the continent so we do have so many things in common.”

The UK and France have clashed over several issues in recent years, including migrant boat crossings in the Channel, a military pact between Britain, the US and Australia, and Brexit measures involving Northern Ireland.

Ukraine’s president told the summit: “You and I are now in a strong position to direct all the possible might of Europe to end the war and guarantee long-term peace for Ukraine, for Europe, for the world.”

Following the meetings, Ms Truss said: “Leaders leave this summit with greater collective resolve to stand up to Russian aggression.

“What we have seen in Prague is a forceful show of solidarity with Ukraine, and for the principles of freedom and democracy.”

As well as the UK, non-EU members Switzerland, Turkey, Norway, Iceland, Georgia, Azerbaijan and western Balkan countries took part in the first gathering of the EPC.

Britain is now expected to host the fourth EPC meeting in 2024, with Moldova and Spain to hold the second and third respectively.

Critics see it as a vague regurgitation of old ideas. Its exact role is still evolving.

When he proposed the plan this year, Mr Macron said it would “offer a platform for political co-ordination” for countries, both those in the EU and those not.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine gave new impetus for co-operation among nations beyond the EU’s 27 member states.

But the EPC has no institutions or dedicated staff. That has led to questions about how any decisions would be implemented.

If it proves to be a success, it may continue to take place up to twice a year. If it’s a failure, it could fizzle out.

Centre for European Reform Director, Charles Grant said one of the measures of success will be “does it persuade Serbia, Azerbaijan and Turkey to lean a bit more to the West and less towards Russia”.

Pyongyang on Wednesday described its recent blitz as “just counteraction measures” to joint US and South Korean military drills.

On Tuesday Pyongyang fired a missile over Japan, prompting the US to call an emergency UN Security Council meeting.

At the meeting the US accused Russia and China of protecting the North from stronger sanctions.

By opposing further sanctions Moscow and Beijing had given Pyongyang “blanket protection”, the US ambassador to the UN said. The Chinese and Russian representatives said increased dialogue was better than punishment.

For the past two months the US, South Korea and Japan have been holding a series of combined exercises as they practice how to defeat and deter a North Korean attack. These drills have antagonised North Korean leader Kim Jong-un, who sees them as proof his enemies are preparing for war.

In its statement the North accused the US of “escalating the military tensions on the Korean peninsula”.

On Wednesday the US, Japan and South Korea carried out further drills, which they said were a response to Tuesday’s launch. The US said there was “no equivalency” between a banned missile test-fire and security drills.

The US also redeployed its aircraft carrier the USS Ronald Reagan near the Korean peninsula.

South Korea and Japan said the first of Thursday’s missiles, launched at about 06:00 local time (21:00 GMT) flew about 350km (217 miles) with a maximum altitude of around 100km, while the second missile had a flight range of about 800km at an altitude of around 50km.

The recent flurry of launches is strongly reminiscent of the period leading up to its last nuclear weapon test in 2017.

Back then, as is happening now, the North tested missiles, there was no dialogue with the US, and Pyongyang fired two missiles over Japan.

Satellite imagery shows that the North has been restoring tunnels at their nuclear testing site, which they had claimed to have destroyed in 2018 during a short-lived diplomatic rapprochement with the US under President Trump.

Last month, North Korea also revised its nuclear laws, with leader Kim Jong Un declaring his country an “irreversible” nuclear power.

With everything in place, Kim appears to be waiting for a politically opportune moment to carry out its seventh nuclear test.

Analysts believe a test is most likely to happen during the window of three weeks between the Communist Party Congress in China later this month and the US mid-term elections in early November.

The Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions are “accepted into the Russian Federation” the documents say.

But in two of those areas – Luhansk and Kherson – Ukraine said it has been retaking more villages.

Mr Putin also signed a decree to formalise Russia’s seizure of the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhzhia.

Last Friday, the Russian leader held a grand ceremony in the Kremlin, where he signed agreements with the Moscow-installed leaders of the four regions.

The move followed self-proclaimed referendums in the areas, denounced as a “sham” by the West.

But on the ground there appears to be a different reality, with Ukrainian forces making gains in both the south and the east.

Serhiy Haidai, Ukrainian governor of Luhansk, told the BBC on Wednesday that six villages in the region had been recaptured.

And President Zelensky later said Ukraine had liberated three more villages in the southern region of Kherson.

That followed a series of gains in Kherson the previous day, including the strategically key village of Davydiv Brid.

Meanwhile, the southern city of Zaporizhzhia was rocked by a series of huge explosions an hour or so before dawn.

Local authorities say seven Russian missiles hit residential buildings and that people are under the rubble. There has been no information on casualties so far.

The BBC’s Paul Adams, who is in the city, says rescue workers are combing through the shattered remains of an elegant five storey apartment building in the middle of the city.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia would retake any territory that had been lost to Ukrainian forces.

Facing questions over the recent losses, he told reporters: “There is no contradiction here. They will be with Russia forever, they will be returned.”

In a speech to teachers on Russian teachers’ day, Mr Putin said he would “calmly develop” the annexed territories.

But Andrey Kartopolov, the chairman of the State Duma defence committee, told state media that Russia needed to stop lying about what was happening on the battlefield, saying that Russians were not stupid.

Russia is still working to mobilise reservists, after Mr Putin announced a call-up last month of 300,000 people who had completed compulsory military service.

But Mr Putin has rowed back on which groups will be affected, after strong opposition and protests in Russia against the move.

He has signed a decree exempting several categories of students, including first-time students at accredited institutions, and certain types of postgraduate students – such as those in the field of science.

In another move, President Putin has signed a decree to formalise Russia’s seizure of the nuclear power plant in one of the annexed regions – Zaporizhzhia – which has been occupied by Russian troops since the early days of the war.

Russia says the plant – Europe’s largest nuclear facility – will be operated by a new company, but Ukraine’s nuclear operator has dismissed the move as “worthless”.

Rafael Grossi, the head of the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the IAEA, has said he will hold consultations with the two sides following the development.

He is heading to Kyiv and then Moscow, seeking to establish a protection zone around the plant, which is situated near the front line of fighting.

The union is recommending its 300,000 members walk out out over pay, with the result of the ballot due next month.

If strikes go ahead, the RCN says they would affect non-urgent but not emergency care.

The government has urged nurses to “carefully consider” the impact on patients.

The RCN has been calling for a rise of 5% above the RPI inflation rate of 12%, but no UK nation has offered close to that.

In England and Wales, NHS staff, including nurses, are being given an average of 4.75% more, with extra for the lowest paid, while in Scotland, 5% has been given. In Northern Ireland, nurses are yet to receive a pay award.

The RCN said it had commissioned research showing average pay had fallen by 6% between 2011 and 2021 – once inflation had been taken into account – compared with the 4.6% average for the whole economy.

General secretary Pat Cullen said: “This is a once-in-a-generation chance to improve pay and combat the staff shortages that put patients at risk.

“Governments have repeatedly neglected the NHS and the value of nursing. We can change this if together we say enough is enough.”

Starting salaries for nurses in England are currently just above £27,000, rising to nearly £55,000 for the most senior nurses.

The RCN said the average pay for a full-time established nurse was just above £32,000 last year – similar to average pay across the economy.

The union is inviting members of the public to co-sign a letter to Prime Minister Liz Truss, backing its stance.

The 380,000 members of Unison, including about 50,000 nurses, are also being balloted.

These ballot papers have been sent out in Scotland, with the rest of the UK following suit in the coming weeks.

Midwives in Scotland have also been balloted on strike action by the Royal College of Midwives, while the British Medical Association has said it will ballot junior doctors over industrial action.

A spokeswoman for the Department of Health and Social Care in England pointed out the independent NHS Pay Review Body had recommended its pay award.

And it followed a 3% pay rise last year, in recognition of work during the pandemic, despite a public-sector pay freeze.

“We value the hard work of NHS nurses and are working hard to support them. Industrial action is a matter for unions and we urge them to carefully consider the potential impacts on patients,” she added.

Scottish Health Secretary Humza Yousaf said: “Any ballot for industrial action is disappointing. We are engaged with health unions and I hope we can come to an agreement on pay in the near future.”

In 2019, RCN members went on strike in Northern Ireland over pay, while nurses who are members of Unison walked out in 2014 over pay.

During strike action, some nurses will continue to work to ensure emergency and urgent services continue.

More than 40 countries will be at the summit of the European Political Community (EPC) in Prague.

World leaders will discuss energy, migration and security, with a focus on the war in Ukraine.

Ms Truss will say Russian aggression means Europe is facing its “biggest crisis since the Second World War”.

Downing Street only confirmed her attendance late last week, with the prime minister travelling from a Conservative Party conference overshadowed by divisions and the economic fallout from her tax-cutting mini-budget.

Ms Truss will hold talks with French President Emmanuel Macron and others on Thursday, in what could mark a new phase in the UK’s post-Brexit relations with Europe.

The UK, Switzerland, Turkey, Norway, Iceland, Georgia, Azerbaijan and Western Balkan countries are among non-EU members who will join the first gathering of the EPC.

The EU’s 27 member states will also be there, ahead of a separate meeting on Friday.

The EPC has been championed by the French President Emmanuel Macron but there’s scepticism, even within the EU, about the new forum.

Critics see it as a vague regurgitation of old ideas.

But France believes it is a “historic” gathering – unique in scale and context – that can help “rebuild stability on our continent” in the wake of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine.

Ms Truss had been hostile to the EPC project, so what changed?

Some observers point out it was never likely she would voice passionate enthusiasm for a French-led European meet-up while vying for the Tory leadership.

But once in power she appeared to warm to the idea, although Downing Street is reluctant to accept suggestions Mr Macron won her over.

It might prove to be a “modest” turning point in EU-UK relations, says the director of the Centre for European Reform, Charles Grant.

While a row about post-Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland remains unresolved, talks are restarting this week.

“Neither side is trying to push that issue to the brink at the moment,” says Mr Grant. “So this summit could be a sign of a modest rapprochement.”

The official line is that the PM is heading to Prague because she wants to “shore up” support for Ukraine and “galvanise” collective action on energy security and migration.

Downing Street says Ms Truss will call on leaders to keep oil and gas interconnectors open this winter while taking part in talks on joint projects to develop new nuclear and offshore wind capacity.

She’ll have a one-on-one with Mr Macron, as France and the UK continue to clash over how to tackle dangerous small-boat crossings in the Channel.

Another draw for the UK is Turkey, a big non-EU player. Norway, a key supplier of energy to the UK, is also showing up.

The UK has been less keen to talk about security, with jitters that the EPC could be seen as somehow cutting across the Nato military alliance.

However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is a key part of the picture.

The UK isn’t alone in hoping that the meeting will demonstrate European unity.

A senior EU diplomat said the meeting would send a “strong signal” to President Putin.

If the EPC does prove short on solid outcomes, then expect it to be long on messages about support for Ukraine and condemnation of the Kremlin.

In the opening session, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will give a video address while Ms Truss will also take the floor, where she’ll say the threat from Russia was “left to fester for far too long”.

But not all those attending are of one mind on the conflict.

“One of the measures of success will be does it persuade Serbia, Azerbaijan and Turkey to lean a bit more to the West and less towards Russia?” says Mr Grant.

Turkey’s talked of a “balanced” approach to Russia and hasn’t signed up to Western sanctions.

“When first proposed by Macron, the EPC was supposed to be club with shared democratic values but it’s now more about making sure Europe as a whole isn’t Russia’s friend,” says Mr Grant.

A sign of the uncertainty about what the EPC is really for is that there have been far clearer messages about what it is not.

It’s not a substitute for NATO or the G7, we’re told.

It’s not a slightly comfier “waiting room” for countries eager to join the EU.

Nor it is a forum that will be dominated by EU institutions.

That’s despite invites having been issued by the president of the European Council, Charles Michel, while the meeting itself has been tacked onto the front of an EU summit.

Brussels insists it has merely been facilitating the forum – it’s not “the EU plus plus”, insisted one senior official.

The next EPC, in either six months or a year’s time, is likely to be held in Moldova.

If the project survives, the UK is currently fourth in line to host a summit.

But British officials are keen to play it cool on the EPC, insisting they will walk away if it evolves in an undesirable direction.